Mega Millions Odds Table, Prize by Prize
The official odds for every Mega Millions prize, and the arithmetic behind them.
How the game works
Mega Millions changed its format in 2025. According to the official site, a play now costs $5 with a multiplier included. You pick 5 white balls from 1 to 70 and one gold Mega Ball from 1 to 24. There are nine ways to win, from $10 up to the jackpot, and every non-jackpot prize is multiplied by 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x or 10x.
Odds for every prize
| Match | Prize | Official odds | Ways to match | Our calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 white + Mega Ball | Jackpot | 1 in 290,472,336 | C(5,5) × C(65,0) × 1 = 1 | 1 in 290,472,336 |
| 5 white | $2,000,000 – $10,000,000 | 1 in 12,629,232 | C(5,5) × C(65,0) × 23 = 23 | 1 in 12,629,232 |
| 4 white + Mega Ball | $20,000 – $100,000 | 1 in 893,761 | C(5,4) × C(65,1) × 1 = 325 | 1 in 893,761.03 |
| 4 white | $1,000 – $5,000 | 1 in 38,859 | C(5,4) × C(65,1) × 23 = 7,475 | 1 in 38,859.18 |
| 3 white + Mega Ball | $400 – $2,000 | 1 in 13,965 | C(5,3) × C(65,2) × 1 = 20,800 | 1 in 13,965.02 |
| 3 white | $20 – $100 | 1 in 607 | C(5,3) × C(65,2) × 23 = 478,400 | 1 in 607.17 |
| 2 white + Mega Ball | $20 – $100 | 1 in 665 | C(5,2) × C(65,3) × 1 = 436,800 | 1 in 665 |
| 1 white + Mega Ball | $14 – $70 | 1 in 86 | C(5,1) × C(65,4) × 1 = 3,385,200 | 1 in 85.81 |
| Mega Ball | $10 – $50 | 1 in 35 | C(5,0) × C(65,5) × 1 = 8,259,888 | 1 in 35.17 |
Official figures from megamillions.com. Each $5 play includes a randomly assigned 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x or 10x multiplier on non-jackpot prizes, so prizes are shown as a range. California pays prizes on a pari-mutuel basis. Odds checked against the official site on October 15, 2026. Rules and prizes can change, so check the official site before you play.
The arithmetic
There are C(70,5) ways to choose 5 white balls from 70. C(n, k) means “n choose k”: n! ÷ (k! × (n − k)!). That gives 12,103,014 combinations. Multiply by the 24 possible Mega Balls and there are 290,472,336 different tickets. Exactly one of them wins the jackpot, so the jackpot odds are 1 in 290,472,336.
For the other prizes, count the tickets that match exactly that many balls. To match 4 white balls, for example, you need 4 of the 5 winning whites (C(5,4) = 5 ways) and 1 of the 65 losing whites (65 ways). That is 325 ways. With the Mega Ball as well, that is 325 tickets; without it, you multiply by the 23 wrong Mega Balls. Divide 290,472,336 by the number of ways to get the “1 in” figure. Add up all nine tiers and the chance of winning any prize is about 1 in 23.07.
What that means for a ticket
A $5 ticket buys one of 290,472,336 combinations. Most of the prize money goes on the jackpot, which you are very unlikely to win, so on average a ticket returns much less than it costs. Lotteries put a share of sales towards prizes and keep the rest, so the expected value of a ticket is negative unless the jackpot gets extremely large, and even then taxes, the lump-sum discount and shared jackpots shrink it. Our lottery odds and expected value guide walks through the calculation.
Picking “lucky” numbers or numbers that haven’t come up recently does not change the odds: every combination is equally likely in every draw. See the gambler’s fallacy.
Sources
Reviewed by Greg Parsons, editor, against the sources above.