Does a Near Miss Mean You Were Close?

The myth

Two jackpot symbols land and the third stops just above the line. Your ticket matches five of six numbers. It feels as if you nearly won, and that the next try must be closer still.

What actually happens

On a slot, the RNG decides the result before the reels stop, and the next spin is independent of this one. Stopping one symbol short is no more “nearly” a jackpot than any other losing result, and it doesn’t make the next spin more likely to hit. On a lottery ticket, matching five numbers in one draw has no effect on the next draw.

Why it feels like progress

Clark and colleagues (2009) scanned people’s brains while they played a simple slot-style game. Near misses felt unpleasant, but they made people want to keep playing and activated reward-related brain areas that also respond to wins, even though a near miss is a loss. The effect was stronger when players felt in control of the game. That links to the illusion of control, which Langer (1975) showed makes people more confident when they get to make choices in a chance game.

Our near-miss effect page covers the research in more depth.

What to do with that

• Recognise a near miss for what it is: a loss that is built to feel like an almost-win.
• If you notice near misses pulling you into “just one more”, take that as a cue to stop.
• Decide your session length before you start. See setting limits.